How our COMLEX Score Prediction Model for Learners Works

Did you know our COMBANK COMLEX mock assessments each provide score predictions for performance on the actual respective exam? The Individual Assessment Summary Report provides students with a probability, or likelihood, of passing their real-world COMLEX-USA® standardized exam based on their Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 mock assessment score. 

What else do you need to know?

For the most accurate predictions, treat the mock assessment as seriously as you would the actual exam. This means that you should take the assessment under conditions that most closely mimic the real-world exam. Since the prediction is based on how you performed when you completed the mock assessment, the results can fluctuate. If feasible, complete the assessment as close as possible to when you plan to sit for the actual exam. Also, if time permits, review your results and compare them to your study plan. In addition to reviewing your strengths and weaknesses, reflect on your studying and testing behaviors that may impact your performance.

And a prediction is not fate; it is an indicator for how you may do on the real-world exam given your performance on the mock assessment at the time of testing. In addition to the prediction, it is important to consider your preparedness to sit for the real-world exam in conjunction with other measures of test readiness.

What predictions does the score prediction model provide you?

The report you get varies depending on whether you are taking the Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 Assessment. When viewing your results, it is important to keep in mind that TrueLearn’s COMBANK Assessments are the most predictive when the assessment is administered as close as possible to the time you plan to sit for the actual standardized exam.

Level 1 Score Prediction Model Report

When you complete TrueLearn’s COMBANK Level 1 Assessment, you are provided with an Individual Assessment Summary Report that shows a score prediction for how you may perform on the real-world exam. This prediction is represented as a probability, or likelihood, of passing. This probability is a percentage that ranges from 0 percent to 100 percent.

Level 2 and Level 3 Score Prediction Model Reports

When you complete TrueLearn’s COMBANK Level 2 CE or Level 3 mock assessment, you are provided with an Individual Assessment Summary Report that shows a predicted score interval and prediction for whether you may “Pass” or “Fail” the actual standardized exam.

How did we develop our predictive model?

Our algorithm for the COMBANK Assessments was developed using a predictive modeling approach. Data for a sample of students who completed TrueLearn’s COMBANK Level 1, Level 2 CE, and Level 3 Assessments, respectively, and sat for the actual standardized exam were used to train the predictive model. The data included the students’ percentage correct score on the COMBANK Assessment and the most recent score on the actual standardized exam taken after completing the mock assessment. Several additional performance metrics are also used by the model. 

The model was trained and validated using a best-in-class 10-fold cross-validation modeling approach. Several different linear and non-linear models were investigated and the final model selected demonstrated the best performance on several key validation metrics, including out-of-sample (OOS) R-squared (R2) and correlation (r) between students’ actual scores on the real-world COMLEX-USA Level 1, Level 2 CE, and Level 3 exams and the model’s predicted scores for how students may perform on the actual exam.

If you have any questions about our score prediction model, please reach out to the TrueLearn Customer Support team.