New COMLEX-USA Level 1 Score Prediction Model for Learners

TrueLearn is excited to announce the launch of a new predictive model for our COMLEX Level 1 mock assessments. This new model improves the accuracy of translating your performance on the COMLEX Level 1 mock assessment to predicted performance on the actual standardized exam. The new predictive model will go into effect for all COMLEX Level 1 mock assessments that are completed on or after January 10, 2022.

What else do you need to know?

What? TrueLearn is launching a new predictive model for the COMLEX Level 1 mock assessments.

Why? The new predictive model improves the accuracy of translating your performance on the COMLEX Level 1 mock assessment to how you may perform on the actual standardized exam. The new model also provides a measure of confidence about its prediction.

Who?The launch of the new predictive model impacts all students that sit for a COMLEX Level 1 mock assessment.

Impact? All individual summary reports generated for COMLEX Level 1 mock assessments taken on or after January 10, 2022 will report a predicted score using the new predictive model.

When? The new predictive model will go live on January 10, 2022. 

Why did we develop a new predictive model?

TrueLearn is committed to providing a world-class product that prepares students, like you, to become strong life-long learners inside and outside of the classroom. Part of our data-centric approach is to communicate comparative benchmarks for students to use to gauge their preparedness. An important part of preparation is knowing where you stand and how you will perform, and our mock assessments provide a benchmark for you to use to assess your likely real-world performance on the COMLEX Level 1 standardized exam.

This new predictive model leverages historical data that connects past students’ performance on TrueLearn’s COMLEX Level 1 mock assessments with their actual performance on the COMLEX Level 1 standardized exam. Based on our own internal testing, this new model is more accurate at predicting how students will perform on the actual COMLEX Level 1 standardized exam. This increased accuracy will help you better understand your level of preparedness and readiness to sit for the actual exam.

Please note, these changes only apply to the COMLEX Level 1 mock assessments at this time. Additionally, we will be closely monitoring how this new model performs after it is launched and will keep the community informed about any changes made in light of our review.

How does the launch of the new predictive model impact summary reports?

In addition to increased accuracy, the new predictive model brings with it important changes to the Individual Assessment Summary Report, the report provided to you after you sit for TrueLearn’s COMLEX Level 1 mock assessment.

A new and enhanced ‘Predicted Outcome’ modal was added to reflect NBOME’s change to  pass-fail scoring. This modal reports a predicted outcome for whether you will pass or fail the real-world exam given your performance on the assessment. 

Second, the predicted outcome is accompanied with a statement of confidence about the prediction. Confidence is reported as “Low”, “Medium”, or “High”. The statement of confidence is intended to communicate how accurate, or confident, the new model is about its prediction. The model’s confidence about a prediction is a function of its experience with historical student performance data. In general, the more experience the model has with a particular score on the mock assessment, the more confident it is about its predictions for that score in the future.

Finally, the ‘Individual Overall Performance’ table shown at the end of the report has been updated to include ‘Predicted Outcome’ and ‘Confidence’. A link to a document that provides more detail about the contents of the `Predicted Outcome` modal will be provided in the report to help you better understand how to think about and use the predicted outcome and confidence statement to assess your readiness to sit for the actual standardized exam. This document will be published online and shared with you in advance of the release of the new score prediction model.

When does this new predictive model go into effect?

The new predictive model will go into effect on January 10, 2022. All students that complete an assessment on or after this date will receive an Individual Assessment Summary Report that reports predicted performance on the actual exam using the new model. All assessments completed before this date will provide reports that use the existing (old) approach for converting scores on the assessment to predicted performance on the standardized exam. 

Is there anything else that I need to know?

It’s important to remember that all mock assessments are the most beneficial when administered as close as possible in time to when you will sit for the actual standardized exam and under conditions that most closely mimic the real-world exam. The more representative of the real-world COMLEX Level 1 standardized exam your test-taking experience is when completing the mock assessment, the more predictive and accurate the mock assessment will be of your performance on the actual exam.

As a note, functionality within the mock assessment testing interface may differ slightly from the actual exam to accommodate a variety of devices students use to study.

If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out! We value your feedback and continue to strive to provide the best tools available to help you prepare for and succeed on all of your standardized exams and beyond.